At risk by the sea

At risk by the sea
June 17, 2001
Section: COMMENTARY
Page: 1

JIM PRESSWOOD and JOSEPH V. SIRYThe Tampa Tribune

Memo: Jim Presswood is a staff attorney with the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy in Tallahassee. Joseph V. Siry, Ph.D., is director of environmental management at Rollins College in Winter Park.

President Bush acknowledged last week prior to leaving for Europe that climate change is an important "issue that must be addressed by the world."

Bush's acknowledgement that climate change is a problem comes a week after the release of a report by the National Academy of Sciences. The report, which the Bush administration requested earlier this year, confirmed previous scientific studies on climate change, finding that greenhouse gas emissions are accumulating in the Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities and that the global average surface air temperature increased between .7 and 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit during the 20th century. The NAS report also found that the warming over the past several decades was most likely due to human activities.

It appears, however, that the NAS report has not persuaded Bush to support mandatory reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. One of the reasons he continues to oppose the Kyoto Protocol is that he believes the greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in the agreement are arbitrary and not based on sound science. Unfortunately, it may be a long time before scientific understanding of climate change develops to a point where a "safe" level of human-produced greenhouse gas emissions can be identified, if such a level exists.

More than enough, however, is already known about climate change science to justify mandatory reductions in emissions. It is undisputed that greenhouse gases trap heat and that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have significantly increased. Since the mid-1700s, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen approximately 31 percent as a result of human activities, and it continues to rise. The uncertainty comes in when scientists try to predict how the Earth's climate will respond to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases.

We are essentially conducting an experiment on the Earth's climate, and it is a dangerous experiment. The scientific community's best prediction - developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international group of leading scientists - on how global average surface air temperature will respond to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases is that the temperature will increase between 2.5 and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1990 average by 2100. The potential impacts of climate change are catastrophic, and we may not have complete certainty on the science until it is too late to take meaningful action.

Scientists predict climate change could lead to impacts such as rising sea levels inundating low-lying coastal areas, more intense tropical storms and prolonged droughts. The IPCC projects that sea levels will rise somewhere between 3.5 inches to almost 3 feet by 2100.

Sea levels already are rising in Florida, which is uniquely vulnerable to rising sea levels with approximately 4,900 square miles being below 5 feet in elevation.

significant rise in sea levels would be disastrous for property owners in the Tampa Bay area.

Taking swift and aggressive action in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is consistent with sound risk-management principles. The risks associated with climate change are too significant to not take steps to minimize them.

The insurance industry, which specializes in risk management, is beginning to recognize this fact. One of the world's largest reinsurance firms, Munich Re, issued a report earlier this year stating that climate change could cost the world $300 billion each year and that only "urgent efforts" to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would avert this outcome.

Florida is so vulnerable to climate change that it needs to be at the forefront of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Our state's leaders should advocate for an international treaty and national legislation requiring reductions in emissions.

Some Florida counties have already cut their greenhouse gas emissions through targeted reduction plans. The state of Florida should build on these efforts by developing a global warming response plan and enacting legislation that requires power plants to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions.

Climate change is the most challenging issue facing our world this century. The United States, as the sole remaining superpower and producer of a quarter of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, has a duty to take a leadership role in solving this problem. We are optimistic that Florida will play a key part in persuading America to take on this role.