During the Tennessee Solar Plus Storage Conference in September, a representative from TVA stated that its 2026 generation procurement contains zero solar projects. That is interesting since Tennessee Valley Authority’s (TVA’s) Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) states that 2-5 gigawatts (GW) of solar are needed by 2040. The 2026 procurement projects will be online by 2032. How will TVA get close to 5 GW of solar if there are no solar projects in its latest procurement? Additionally, the most updated queue dated September 14, 2026 shows that all 2025 procurement solar AND solar plus storage projects will not move forward despite TVA continuing to project load growth. There goes 2031!
Per Lazard, solar is one of the cheapest sources of new generation available today, and the TVA’s own planning documents say so. Yet a look at TVA’s actual interconnection queue tells a different story. Solar is literally disappearing. There is no solar in the 2026 generation procurement or Resource Solicitation Cluster (RSC), and all of the solar that was in the 2025 RSC has disappeared. What is going on?
What the Plan Says
TVA’s 2026 IRP calls for meaningful solar growth. Every scenario in the IRP includes solar, with incremental capacity added between 2027 and 2040, including 2-5 GW of solar. The IRP goes further, indicating roughly 3 GW of solar was contracted to come online by 2030. TVA’s own language frames solar as a core piece of the resource mix, stating, “Solar expansion plays a complementary role, meeting customer needs and providing economic energy.” (IRP, p. 65).
That is the plan on paper. The interconnection queue tells a different story.
What the Queue Actually Shows
Tracking TVA’s interconnection queue over the past two years shows solar’s share steadily eroding:
- February 2025: the TVA queue was 25% solar, the transitional cluster queue showed 15 solar projects at 1,736 MW, and the transitional serial queue showed 4 solar projects at 766 MW.
- May 2025: the TVA queue was 22% solar, the transitional cluster queue showed 3 solar projects, and the transitional serial cluster queue showed 3 solar projects.
- October 2025: the TVA queue was 19% solar; the transitional cluster study queue showed 2 solar projects, and the transitional serial queue showed 3 solar projects. Additionally, the 2025 RSC was introduced with one solar project.
- March 2026: the TVA queue was 11.7% solar.
- May 2026: the TVA queue was 13% solar, the 2025 RSC had 2 projects at 440 MW solar, and the annual cluster showed 1 solar project at 135 MW
- September 2026: 0% solar in the 2025 and 2026 RSCs and 1,324 MW solar in the queue with an interconnection agreement.
In other words, solar did not just fail to increase between the 2025 and 2026 RSCs — it went from over 400 MW of active projects to RSCs with no active solar at all.
A 7-Year Process
The full interconnection process is roughly 7 years. Projects in the 2025 and 2026 RSC will not come online until at least 2031. If solar is not included, this pushes utility-scale solar out past at least 2032. How will TVA get to 5 GW solar at this rate?
Legal Troubles
In September 2026, Trifecta Red Hills I, LLC sued TVA over a 67.5 MW solar project in Mississippi for delays caused by TVA. These delays include a late National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) review and a late Interconnection Agreement. Delays that pushed the project’s contracted deadlines past due dates TVA set in the agreements. TVA has refused to honor extension requests that meet the contracted Purchased Power and Interconnection agreements. They have instead requested millions of dollars in additional collateral. TVA acknowledged responsibility for the delays in January 2026 according to the complaint. What has changed? Whatever the outcome, this is a reminder that solar projects already in the queue can stall, and possibly disappear, not just based on scheduling.
The Bottom Line
TVA’s IRP describes a resource mix with multiple gigawatts of solar coming online through 2040. However, the interconnection queue shows the opposite: solar megawatts shrinking, and more gas and storage. The direction of travel in the queue data suggests something more than a slow pipeline. Low-cost solar may be in TVA’s IRP, but according to the current evidence, it is not close to the front of the line.
