The global energy system is undergoing its most dramatic transformation in over a century. While the current U.S. administration doubles down on fossil fuels, a technological revolution is accelerating worldwide that will fundamentally reshape economic and geopolitical power. The winners won’t be determined by oil reserves, but by who can harness the power of our nearest star, the sun, and manage electrons most efficiently.
An insightful and easy-to-review report by Ember, a global energy think tank that accelerates the clean energy transition with data and policy, documents the accelerating Electrotech Revolution. It is a good news story for our children and the planet. The speed of change in what researchers call “electrotech” – solar, wind, batteries, electric vehicles, and heat pumps – is outpacing even the most optimistic forecasts. Consider solar power, which the Ember report notes has gone from the smallest to the largest source of capacity in 15 years (p. 19). The exponential growth isn’t slowing – it’s accelerating. Solar capacity has been doubling every three years for three decades, while battery storage has been nearly doubling annually since 2020.
This isn’t a gradual change. Complex energy models consistently underestimate the reality of exponential adoption. The report shows how forecasters have repeatedly lowballed both solar additions and electric vehicle sales, missing the S-curve dynamics that define technology revolutions.
The Manufacturing Base Is Being Built – Just Not Here
While America debates energy policy, the rest of the world is building the infrastructure for the electrotech era. The numbers are staggering:
- Solar manufacturing capacity: Already 1,600 GW globally, far exceeding even aggressive Net Zero scenarios
- Battery manufacturing: 16 TWh of capacity planned by 2028, outpacing projected demand
- Geographic concentration: China dominates with 60% of global solar manufacturing capacity
The report reveals a crucial insight: The same people and places that made digital tech, mainly in China, are now making electrotech. Many electrotech leaders started in digital technology, bringing manufacturing expertise and supply chain knowledge to energy applications. This manufacturing dominance matters because electrotech follows learning curves – costs fall approximately 20% with every doubling of deployment. Technologies get cheaper with scale. Commodities get more expensive the deeper you dig. In the South, we started to build out that manufacturing base, but the Trump administration has created uncertainty and chaos in the clean technology markets in our region.
Star Power: Solar The Unstoppable Force
Solar power exemplifies why the electrotech revolution is unstoppable. The physics are undeniable: “The sun supplies more energy to Earth every five days than all fossil fuel reserves.” (p.10)
The cost trajectory is equally compelling. Solar module prices have fallen 99.6% since 1980, while oil prices have increased with cumulative extraction. Solar-plus-storage systems in India now cost $40 per MWh – competitive with the marginal cost of existing fossil plants.
But solar’s real power lies in its democratic nature. As the report highlights, 92% of countries have renewables potential over 10x their current demand. Unlike fossil fuels concentrated in specific geographies, solar potential is nearly universal, fundamentally altering geopolitical dynamics.
The Efficiency Revolution
The electrotech advantage isn’t just economic – it’s thermodynamic. Fossil fuel systems waste two-thirds of their primary energy input. Just think of all the waste heat in a gas-powered car that requires a liquid-cooled radiator. The report quantifies this staggering inefficiency: “$4.6 trillion a year goes up in smoke.”
Electrotech is three times more efficient across sectors, representing two-thirds of fossil fuel demand:
- Electricity generation: Wind and solar at 100% efficiency vs. 30-40% for thermal plants
- Transportation: Electric vehicles at 80-90% efficiency vs. 25-40% for internal combustion
- Heating: Heat pumps at 300-400% efficiency vs. 85% for gas boilers
This efficiency advantage creates a virtuous cycle with Electrotech enabling us to get much more for much less. The entire global car fleet could run on about 13 EJ of electricity – equivalent to under 15% of current electricity demand.
Giving the Keys of Power to the Fossils is a Strategic Misstep
While the world builds electrotech capacity, America’s current energy policy, doubling down on fossil fuel, represents a historic strategic error. The report’s geopolitical analysis is stark: fossil fuel dependency creates vulnerability, while electrotech enables energy security.
Three-quarters of the world depends on fossil fuel imports, spending over 5% of GDP in many cases. Meanwhile, electrotech offers a path to energy independence: “Just a few technologies can reduce global energy imports by 70%” through renewables, EVs, and heat pumps. (p.63)
China understood this dynamic early, becoming what the report calls “the first major electrostate.” Chinese electrotech investment since 2023 totals over $100 billion in outbound foreign direct investment, building manufacturing capacity globally for the future, while America’s current political leadership is looking in the rear-view mirror.
The Coming Fossil Fuel Decline
The data suggests we’re approaching “peak fossil demand” globally, not “peak fossil availability.” The report shows fossil fuel demand has already plateaued outside China, while Chinese fossil electricity generation peaked in the first half of 2025.
This isn’t a gradual decline – it’s the beginning of structural disruption. Road transport, representing 75% of transport energy demand, faces particular vulnerability as EVs scale. The report projects: “Road transport is the soft underbelly of the oil system. Sales translate into stocks within 15 years or less.” (p.79)
The implications extend far beyond energy companies. Refineries dependent on gasoline revenues, LNG terminals facing stranded assets, and entire fossil fuel supply chains risk obsolescence.
Borrowing, Not Burning: The Mining Materials Reality
One persistent criticism of electrotech focuses on mineral requirements for batteries and solar panels. The reality, however, reveals a fundamental difference between electrotech and fossil fuel systems: electrotech borrows materials, while fossil fuels burn them forever.
The report’s analysis is striking: “The fossil fuel system requires over 50x more materials than electrotech.” (p.49) Annual fossil fuel extraction totals 17.4 billion metric tons globally, while the entire 25-year electrotech transition requires just 300 million tons of materials – and crucially, these can be recycled. Battery recycling creates a circular system impossible with fossil fuels. The report shows how mineral demand per vehicle can fall dramatically through recycling and technological improvement. With recycling rates of 90-94% achievable, and chemistry improvements reducing material intensity by 25-45% per decade, the material footprint shrinks over time rather than growing.
As the report puts it: “If you recycle batteries and improve performance, you don’t need to extract new minerals.”(p.50) A battery reaching end-of-life in 2035 provides a secondary supply for new batteries in 2045, creating a closed loop that fossil fuels can never achieve.
Catching the Wave
The report’s conclusion is unambiguous: “This is the decisive decade. Surf the electrotech wave or be dragged under.” (p.111)
Countries building electrotech capacity now will dominate the energy system of the future. Those clinging to fossil fuel strategies risk becoming energy importers rather than exporters, dependent on technologies developed and manufactured elsewhere.
The choice facing our country is clear. Continue doubling down on 20th-century energy sources while other nations build 21st-century infrastructure, or recognize that the electrotech revolution represents the most significant economic opportunity since the internet.
The manufacturing base is being built. The costs are falling below those of fossil fuels. The efficiency advantages are undeniable. The only question is whether America will participate in shaping this future or find itself buying technology from those who saw the wave coming.
The electrotech revolution is happening with or without American leadership. So many times, I have heard climate deniers say, “What about China and its emissions?” Well, China got the memo and has stepped up to the challenge. The question is whether America will lead or be led. The good news for our health, but bad news for the economy, is that the rest of the world is not waiting for us to figure it out. A safe and healthy planet depends on all of us making the transition.
